Hungarian GP Preview
The World Championship for Hypocrisy became a two horse race last week with Alonso setting a scorching pace and Red Bulls Christian Horner putting in a sterling effort to defend his lead. The only thing Alonso wanted at McLaren was equal treatment, no doubt the same kind of equal treatment he now enjoys at Ferrari. In Valencia he complained that the FIA were manipulating races to get the results they wanted but had no problem taking the top step on the podium in Hungary after his stunning overtaking manoeuvre on Massa. Horner was quick to condemn Ferrari for giving team orders while conveniently forgetting that it was he who had the improved front wing taken off Webber and given to Vettel, an action that was clearly not designed to favour one driver over another. They really do take us all for mugs.
So what can we expect in Hungary? The circuit is not everyone's cup of tea as it is a bit like Valencia, a boring track on which overtaking is all but impossible, but slower. However it has been a happy hunting ground for Tip-Ex punters down the years and while there are no 200/1 forecasts this year there is strong bet on the winning driver.
He needed help to win in Germany but Alonso looks a good thing this weekend and the fact that his team mate has to finish behind him takes one threat out of the equation. Massa has never enjoyed much luck here in any case, never finishing better than 7th and very nearly losing his life in a freak accident last year. It would be a good news story if he bounced back to win it this year but Ferrari do not do good news stories, just get the right result at any cost. That result is an Alonso win and getting him back into the World Championship before McLaren get those updates working properly.
This race falls just at the right time for Ferrari. They have got their F-Duct working, the blown rear diffuser working and now they have what most teams believe is a flexible front wing to maximise downforce. Most teams might believe its illegal but the FIA had a good look both at Ferraris and Red Bull's front wings in Germany after photographic evidence was submitted to the stewards and passed as legal. The only option for those teams complaining is that they now must come up with their own version.
There is little doubt that Red Bull and Ferrari are the form cars with McLaren having stalled while trying to optimise their blown diffuser. Running it for the full weekend in Germany will have given them plenty of data to aid the development process but will they have been able to make dramatic inroads inside seven days? Probably not. The team have a great record in Hungary winning four of the last five races on this track but on a circuit that makes overtaking virtually impossible they need to be qualifying in the top four minimum. That looks a big ask after being over 0.63 seconds slower than Red Bull and Ferrari in qualifying at Hockenheim.
This slow, twisty circuit will play to the strengths of the Ferrari while not offering much in the way of high speed corners for the Red Bull to dominate. Alonso looked like a real contender for pole in Monaco (the only track slower than Budapest) before a little too much ambition put him in the wall forcing him to miss qualifying. The car was quick round the streets of Valencia but bad luck with the safety car timing ruined his chances there, Canada was another one that got away and the car showed good speed in the slow corners. Hockenheim was a fairly neutral track in terms of who it would favour and Ferrari showed it had all but closed the qualifying pace deficit to Red Bull and probably marginally faster over the race distance.
On track whose characteristics should suit Ferrari perfectly even the tyre selection of medium and super soft is good news for Ferrari, Red Bull is worried about a red wash this weekend. I am not sure about Mark Webbers record as a tipster but when a Red Bull driver admits to telling his mates to back Ferrari in Hungary, you have to take notice.
8 points Alonso to win the Hungarian GP @ 2/1 generally available.
There is very little more of interest in the betting markets and only one more bet to make.
2 points Hulkenberg to finish in the points @ 9/4 with Betfred.
Williams were disappointed with scoring no points in Germany, especially after both cars qualified in the top 10. Both drivers made poor starts and got stuck in the rather processional traffic. Hulkenberg was very highly rated coming into F1 but struggled in the first half of the season. With the car now much improved he is starting to realise his potential, qualifying in the top 10 twice in the last three races and finishing in the points once, ironically in the race were he qualified 13th. The team believe their car will be well suited to the Hungaroring and they have been working on eliminating the slow starts which proved so costly in Germany.