Formula One 2010 Season Preview.
It was just a few months ago that Formula One looked like it was heading
for the rocks. Toyota and BMW pulled out of the sport, Bridgestone gave a years
notice to quit and Renault was looking for a way out. A sixteen car grid was in
prospect and we did not even know which tracks were going to be used. Just a few weeks later we had Mercedes committing to a long term future by buying Brawn GP and bringing back not just the Silver Arrows but the legend that is Michael Schumacher. Quite a coup and one that was going to get everyone talking about F1.
Not to be out done, McLaren hit back by stealing Jenson Button from under Mercedes nose and pairing him up with Lewis Hamilton to establish a British dream team. Two world champions going head to head in a top car bring back memories of Senna vs. Prost.
Ferrari were probably the winners in the transfer market, pensioning off the jaded Raikkonen and replacing him with Alonso, widely regarded as the best driver on the grid, even if has the tendency to throw the odd world class hissy fit if things do not go his way. The team also welcomed back the popular and underrated Massa back from serious injury, making a formidable driver line up.
Add to this the return of the Lotus, Richard Branson setting up his own team, the name Senna back on the grid (Bruno, nephew to the legend), Silverstone reprieved and Montreal back on the calendar. Disaster averted and we now have the most eagerly awaited season in living memory.
However, from a betting perspective, this time last year life was so much simpler. Brawn had a car that was clearly the quickest in testing and it was a question of who was going to catch them. This year we have no clear favourite thrown up by the winter tests and a real puzzle as to who can win the titles over the course of nineteen races.
It is a good idea to remember that it will be a long season and those teams that can keep on pushing development through all nineteen races are the ones that will be involved in the battle for silverware come November. Formula One is a very expensive business and despite the need to cut costs, there are still a few teams that can afford to buy the title in the same way as the top football teams spend their way to the top of the Premiership.
After the four (weather disrupted) winter tests the general consensus is that Ferrari, McLaren, Red Bull and Mercedes have the quickest car, but with a new rule outlawing refuelling during the race means the cars can be carrying just a few kilos to simulate a qualifying fun, or a 170 kg race start load, even the most seasoned paddock watchers could not be sure as to what the true picture was. That will only be revealed as the first few races unfold. What we can be sure of is that these four teams have the budgets and resources to maintain a championship challenge.
McLaren were hugely impressive last season, turning a dog into a race winning car. They remain unsurpassed in their ability to bring new parts to the car race in race out and with two world champions pushing development forward, they have to be very serious contenders. Lewis Hamilton has the advantage of being the incumbent driver and his ability is undoubted. There will be those that say he is too harsh on his tyres and that will hurt his chances when carrying all the extra weight of fuel around. This tends to fall down when you consider that the rubber compounds used this year will be more durable and the fact that he is talented enough to adapt his style. Indeed during testing, Bridgestone sources reported that it was the ultra smooth Button who was wearing his tyres more than Hamilton.
Alonso is finally back in a car that looks capable of delivering him his third Championship,
"the best F1 car I have ever driven" quote will have worried some of his rivals. A great driver in a great car with great resources. That looks like a recipe for success and explains why he is the favourite for the Drivers Championship. However there are two potential weaknesses, Alonsos temperament and Ferraris ability to operate at the highest level under pressure.
We all saw how Alonso behaved when paired with a driver who was allowed to, and had the ability to match him on the track. If Massa is good enough to compete with Alonso I can see the tensions between the two drivers leading to a great of disharmony. Remember that, but for Crashgate in Singapore 2008, Massa would have been World Champion that year and it is something that Massa was quite vocal about before the PR people shut him up. It bugs him, make no mistake. Alonso is very much in
the Schumacher mould, he will not settle for anything other than being the teams number one. He will not accept a team mate that can beat him and I suspect that if Massa challenges him, then one of them will have to go, probably Massa.
As for the matter of team performance under pressure it has to be said that this is not the old Ferrari dream team that brought so much success to Schumacher. There is no Brawn, Todt, Bryne and dare I mention Stepney? They failed to develop last years car which suggests that they could be vulnerable to being out developed by the likes of McLaren, Mercedes or Red Bull. In a closely contested season Ferrari will need to work effectively and efficiently and on the evidence of last year, that is not guaranteed. Giving Luca Badoer a drive was other example of poor decision making creeping in, something that would not have happened a few years ago.
Mercedes entry as a fully blown constructor will be overshadowed by the
return of Michael Schumacher but they are starting off on a very sound footing.
Buying (for a song) the team that won both titles last year is good business and
they are likely to have a very competitive car, even if it was not quite on the
pace of Ferrari or McLaren in testing. What they will not have is the huge advantage that Brawn started the 2009 season with. Last years car was one of the most finely developed F1 cars ever. Ross Brawn put all of Hondas resources into developing a race winner for 2009, giving up on 2008 by necessity. This years car will not have had the same kind
of inputs. Fewer staff at the factory, a smaller budget and of course they spent last season fighting for the Championships, needing to put resources into the 2009 car till the very end of the season.
The team have said that they may not be able compete for wins in the first few races, but with Brawn and Schumacher involved, not to mention Mercedes resources, this should be a team that can develop the car well through the season. The driver line up is strong, but the weakest of the big four teams. Rosberg has yet to win a race and racing with Schumacher as team mate has never been a great experience for drivers in the past. Schumacher himself is 41, a little ring rusty and about to embark on a nineteen race season against the stiffest competition he has ever faced. He should still be able to win races, but I suspect he is going to find life in todays F1 much tougher than in his time at Ferrari. He may be refreshed after his three year break, but will he still be motivated if he finds himself regularly beaten by the young guns? Does he need it? No.
Red Bull is sort of flying under the radar due to the interest in Schumacher, Alonsos move to Ferrari and the British Dream Team at McLaren. There is nothing new to talk about when it comes to Red Bull, and that may well be their greatest strength, continuity. Same drivers, same designer, same engineering staff, same boss, same engine. They finished last season with the best car and have set about refining that package without any distracting changes. Judging their pace in testing was not easy but the feeling is that they have a quick car that may be a little harsh on its tyres over long runs. An asset for qualifying but not for lugging round a heavy car in a race.
The main question over Red Bull is can they make that final step from a race winning team to a Championship winning team? They had a great car last year, so good that everyone has copied it for this season.
It won six races but no titles. Reliability was poor, the engine lacked power
and the drivers made errors. They are stuck with the same engine but this year
its lack of power will be balanced out by its good fuel economy. The drivers
should be a little better this year with Webber starting the season fully fit and Vettel with a years experience of racing at the sharp end of the grid under his belt. As for reliability, we shall see, but Newey
designed cars have sometimes been very fragile beasts indeed. They will be in
the mix but can they really beat an in form Ferrari or McLaren team over a
season? Its a big ask.
With all the good will in the world, it is hard to see the Championship winners coming from outside the big four. Each team has its strengths and weaknesses and the battle between them promises to be fascinating. On the balance of what we have seen in testing it will be close, but historically, the bigger the team, the better the ability to develop the car and that suggests a classic Ferrari vs. McLaren fight for the title come November. At McLaren, Lewis Hamilton is established in the team and is likely to be too good for Button. At Ferrari Massa has the benefit of being the established driver but surely Alonso will prevail over the long season.
I rate McLarens ability to be able to improve their car above all others and this factor should allow them to win at least one Championship. If Button settles in quickly, they could win both. That said, Alonso is hugely talented and is very highly motivated, especially if his main rival turns out to be Lewis Hamilton and McLaren. My money will go on Hamilton, but there is enough respect for Alonsos abilities to place a dual forecast bet.
4 points Lewis Hamilton to win the Drivers Championship @ 5.00 with Totesport and Paddy Power.
2 points Hamilton/Alonso Drivers Championship dual forecast @ 7.50 with Paddy Power.
There are some interesting season long match bets to consider, if you do
notmind tying up money for nine months. One that stands out is 1.83 for Toni Liuzzi to beat Jarno Trulli.
Some times you wonder if the guys that set these odds have actually done any
research. Just in case anybody does not realise, Toyota have left F1 and Trulli now drives for Lotus F1, a brand new team who will start the season 3.5 seconds off the pace, by their own admission. Lotus F1 are probably the most prepared of the three new teams but building an F1 team from scratch is a huge undertaking, especially now that you have to build your own chassis. The fact that they will be in Bahrain and might actually finish the race shows that they have proper F1 people throughout the team and that they may have a future, but to be 3.5 seconds slower than the best is poor.
Force India will not have the fastest car on the grid but it will not be that far off, certainly within a second of the best. So Liuzzi will have a performance advantage measured in seconds per lap over Trulli, a Mercedes engine, McLaren gearbox and in a team that had a pole position and a 2nd place finish last season. Force India are targeting a top 6 in the constructors championship and testing suggests that that is a realistic target.
Liuzzi is not the greatest driver but the only reason that his odds are so big in what looks a total mismatch is that Force India will be using Paul DI Resta in Fridays free practice and perhaps the bookies reckon there is a chance that the Scot will replace Liuzzi
if the Italian does not deliver the goods. There is that chance, but if Liuzzi scores even a point, that is likely to be enough to beat Trulli. You get points all the way down to 10th place this year, but even getting that far up the pecking order would require an awful lot of luck for Trulli, but should be a realistic target for Liuzzi in every race. As I said, this is a mismatch.
10 points Tonio Liuzzi to beat Jarno Trulli at 1.83 with Coral.
Other match bets worth consideration include Kobayashi to beat De La Rosa @ 1.80 with Sportingbet. Why Sauber signed De la Rosa is a mystery, he was never that good and years spent testing McLarens will not have made him quicker, remember the great job Badoer did for Ferrari last year. Kobayashi was impressive in his two races last year and while is likely to crash more often than DLR, he is also likely to be much faster in a car that can score points. If you like arbing, you can back DLR at 2.62 in the same match up with Hills.
Hulkenberg to beat Kubica at evens was almost worth putting up as a recommended bet. The Hulk has been very impressive coming through the junior ranks and the Williams looks to be a solid top7 performer. The Renault has not impressed and they are in a rebuilding mode this season.
It would be a real shock if Rosberg were to beat his team mate, Michael Schumacher over the length of the season and 1.50 on the multiple Champion is probably generous.
The Preview for the Bahrain GP will be posted on Thursday afternoon.